This is the accessible text file for CG Presentation number GAO-09- 952CG entitled 'Ensuring Accountability In A Time Of Financial And Fiscal Stress' which was released on August 20, 2009. This text file was formatted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) to be accessible to users with visual impairments, as part of a longer term project to improve GAO products' accessibility. Every attempt has been made to maintain the structural and data integrity of the original printed product. Accessibility features, such as text descriptions of tables, consecutively numbered footnotes placed at the end of the file, and the text of agency comment letters, are provided but may not exactly duplicate the presentation or format of the printed version. The portable document format (PDF) file is an exact electronic replica of the printed version. We welcome your feedback. Please E-mail your comments regarding the contents or accessibility features of this document to Webmaster@gao.gov. This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. It may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. Because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. Ensuring Accountability In A Time Of Financial And Fiscal Stress: NASACT 2009 Annual Conference: Dearborn, Michigan: August 17, 2009: By Gene L. Dodaro: Acting Comptroller General of the United States: U.S. Government Accountability Office: GAO-09-952CG: Outline: * American Recovery & Reinvestment Act: * Financial Institutions and Markets: * Long-Term Fiscal Outlook: American Recovery & Reinvestment Act: * Signed February 17, 2009; * Purpose: - preserve and create jobs and promote recovery; - assist those most impacted by the recession; - invest in science and health-care technology; - invest in infrastructure; - stabilize state and local government budgets. * Total cost (tax and spending): $787 billion, including over $580 billion in additional spending (CBO Estimate). GAO responsibilities include: * conducting bimonthly reviews of selected states’ and localities’ use of funds; * commenting on recipient reports on the number of jobs created or preserved; * reviewing areas such as trade adjustment assistance, new education incentive grants, and efforts to increase small business lending; * monitoring downturn’s long-term effect on states (health care costs). State and Local Reporting Strategy for Bimonthly Reviews: * Longitudinal study of 16 states and the District of Columbia: - Localities sampled within selected states; - About two-thirds of population and two-thirds of the intergovernmental assistance funds. Figure: Map of the United States: [Refer to PDF for image: map] The map indicates the location of 16 states and the District of Columbia: 1. Arizona 2. California 3. Colorado 4. Florida 5. Georgia 6. Illinois 7. Iowa 8. Massachusetts 9. Michigan 10. Mississippi 11. New Jersey 12. New York 13. North Carolina 14. Ohio 15. Pennsylvania 16. Texas 17. Washington, D.C. Source: GAO analysis. [End of figure] Reporting Objectives: Describe states’ and localities’: * Use of funds; * Up-front safeguards and ongoing monitoring, audits, and evaluations; * Plans to evaluate the impact of funds. Figure: Programs in GAO Review: 87% of estimated Fiscal Year 2009 Federal Recovery Act Outlays to States and Localities: [Refer to PDF for image: illustration] Medicaid: 63%; State Fiscal Stabilization Fund: 13%; Highways: 6%; Other Selected programs: 5%: * IDEA, Parts B and C, 1%; * WIA Youth Programs, 1%; * ESEA, Title i, Part A: 1%; * Less than 1%: - Byrne Grants; - Weatherization Assistance Program; - Public Housing Capital Fund; Other programs not in study: 13%. Source: GAO analysis of data from CBO and Federal Fund Information for States. [End of figure] Figure: Projected versus Actual Federal Outlays to States and Localities under the Recovery Act: [Refer to PDF for image: vertical bar graph] Fiscal year: 2009; Estimated outlay: $48.9 billion; Actual Federal Outlays as of July 24, 2009: $37.2 billion. Fiscal year: 2010; Estimated outlay: $107.7 billion. Fiscal year: 2011; Estimated outlay: $63.4 billion. Fiscal year: 2012; Estimated outlay: $23.3 billion. Fiscal year: 2013; Estimated outlay: $14.4 billion. Fiscal year: 2014; Estimated outlay: $9.1 billion. Fiscal year: 2015; Estimated outlay: $5.7 billion. Fiscal year: 2016; Estimated outlay: $2.5 billion. Source: GAO analysis of data from CBO, Recovery.gov and Federal Funds Information for States. [End of figure] Figure: Comparison of State and Local Recovery Act Funding: [Refer to PDF for image: two pie-charts] Fiscal year 2009: Health: 64%; Education and training: 18%; Transportation: 8%; Income Security: 6%; Community Development: 3%; Energy and environment: 1%. Fiscal year 2012: Health: 1%; Education and training: 19%; Transportation: 30%; Income Security: 17%; Community Development: 16%; Energy and environment: 17%. Source: GAO analysis of CBO and FFIS data. [End of figure] GAO Recommendations: Overview: Accountability and Transparency: * Leverage Single Audit as an effective oversight tool: - Move to earlier reporting on internal controls; - Focus on Recovery Act programs; - Give relief for low-risk programs; - Fund more timely, effective Single Audits. Reporting on Impact: * Provide examples of reporting on jobs created and retained. * Clarify new or existing program performance measures. Communications and Guidance: * Clarify data quality and reconciliation requirements. * Specify data certification and approval requirements. * Ensure more direct communication on funds flowing to each state. American Recovery & Reinvestment Act: Challenges for federal, state and local officials: * Expectations for “an unprecedented level of transparency and accountability.” * Qualified personnel need to implement proper controls and accountability at all levels of government. * Close and ongoing coordination needed among federal, state, and local governments. * Accountability community: special responsibility to ensure collective efforts are well-coordinated. [End of section] Financial Institutions and Markets: GAO Role in Financial Rescue: * Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) oversight. * Auditors of FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund, FHFA, TARP, and U.S. Government Financial Statements. * Financial Regulatory System. * INTOSAI Task Force on Global Financial Crisis. * Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 created $700 billion TARP in October 2008. * GAO given statutory oversight role. * GAO’s TARP reports’ recommendations focus on accountability and transparency and follow 3 themes: - Monitoring the use of funds to meet the Act’s objectives; - Articulating a better communication strategy; - Ensuring effective Treasury management structure. Figure: Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Initiatives and Projected Combined Assistance as of June 2009 (TARP: $643.1 billion): [Refer to PDF for image: illustration] This illustration is a circle with TARP at the hub. Surrounding the hub are the following initiatives: TARP Initiative: Making Home Affordable Plan ($50 billion); Type: Direct payment. TARP Initiative: Capital Assistance Program (TBD); Type: Investment. TARP Initiative: Targeted Investment Program ($40.0 billion); Type: Investment. TARP Initiative: Capital Purchase Program ($218 billion); Type: Investment. TARP Initiative: Systematically Significant Failing Institutions Program ($70.0 billion); Type: Investment. TARP Initiative: Asset Guarantee Program ($12.5 billion); Type: Insurance or guarantee. TARP Initiative: Public/Private Investment Program ($100 billion); Type: Loan, Investment, and guarantee combination. TARP Initiative: Consumer and Business Lending Initiative ($70.0 billion); Type: Loan and investment combination. TARP Initiative: Automotive Industry Financing Program ($82.6 billion); Type: Loan and investment combination. Outside the circle is a depiction of funding contributions from FDIC and Federal Reserve. [End of figure] Financial Institutions and Markets: FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund: Most recent audit of financial statements completed May 2009. Clean opinion, but: * Reported losses from actual and anticipated failures of $42 billion. * Reported Fund reserves of $17 billion were well below statutory minimum level. * Highlighted additional exposures to Fund from potential financial institution failures and systemic risk initiatives. Through August 7th, 72 federally insured financial institutions have failed in 2009 * 305 institutions were on the problem institution list (as of March 31, 2009). Modernizing the U.S. Financial Regulatory System: Financial Regulation: A Framework for Crafting and Assessing Proposals to Modernize the Outdated U.S. Financial Regulatory System (GAO-09-216, Jan. 8, 2009): * Explains the origins of the current financial regulatory system. * Describes market developments and changes that pose challenges to the current system. * Presents an evaluation framework that Congress and others can use to craft or evaluate potential regulatory reform efforts. Outdated Regulatory System: Risks posed by: * Emergence of large, complex, and interconnected financial conglomerates. * Less-regulated entities are playing increasingly critical roles in the financial system. * New and complex products pose challenges to system stability and consumer protection. For Crafting or Assessing Regulatory Reform Proposals: GAO Framework: 9 Essential Characteristics: * Clearly defined regulatory goals in statute. * Appropriately comprehensive. * Systemwide focus. * Flexible and adaptable. * Efficient and effective. * Consistent consumer and investor protections. * Regulators provided with independence, prominence, authority, and accountability. * Consistent financial oversight. * Minimal taxpayer exposure. Global Financial Crisis Task Force: * Created by International Governing Board in November 2008. Purpose: * Enhance the knowledge base of NAOs on financial and economic matters related to the crisis. * Provide a source of information to help governments and the global community respond to the crisis. Membership: U.S.A. is lead, other countries include: Austria; Canada; Chile; China; Cyprus; Denmark; Estonia; Hungary; Indonesia; Italy; Japan; Korea; Mexico; Morocco; Netherlands; Poland; Russia; Slovakia; Spain; Sweden; United Kingdom; Venezuela. Long-Term Challenges: Today’s focus—understandably—is on: * Dealing with financial system stress. * Addressing the economic downturn. But...Underlying issues still need to be addressed: * Long-term fiscal challenge: GAO will update its long-term simulations this fall. Some Measures: Impact on Debt held by the public: * FY 2005 actual: $4.6 trillion (37.5% of GDP). * FY 2008 actual: $5.8 trillion (40.8% of GDP). * FY 2009 projected: $8.5 trillion (59.9% of GDP). * FY 2010 projected: $9.9 trillion (67.1% of GDP). Impact on Social Security: * Projected gap between expected outlays & revenue widened from $6.6 trillion in 2008 to $7.7 trillion in 2009. * Negative cash flow 2016 (compared to 2017). * Trust fund exhaustion 2037 (compared to 2041). Figure: Debt Held by the Public Under the President’s Fiscal Year 2010 Budget: [Refer to PDF for image: Vertical bar graph] Fiscal year: 2008; Percent of GDP: 40.8. Fiscal year: 2009; Percent of GDP: 59.9. Fiscal year: 2010; Percent of GDP: 67.1. Fiscal year: 2011; Percent of GDP: 70.1. Fiscal year: 2012; Percent of GDP: 69.6. Fiscal year: 2013; Percent of GDP: 68.7. Fiscal year: 2014; Percent of GDP: 68.5. Fiscal year: 2015; Percent of GDP: 68.5. Fiscal year: 2016; Percent of GDP: 69.0. Fiscal year: 2017; Percent of GDP: 69.4. Fiscal year: 2018; Percent of GDP: 69.6. Fiscal year: 2019. Percent of GDP: 70.1. Source: OMB. [End of figure] Figure: Marketable Securities by Year of Maturity, as of June 30, 2009 (Total Outstanding—$6,612 billion): Year of maturity: 2009-2010; Dollars in billions: $3,041; Percentage of total outstanding securities that mature during time frame: 46%. Year of maturity: 2011-2015; Dollars in billions: $2,083; Percentage of total outstanding securities that mature during time frame: 32%. Year of maturity: 2016-2020; Dollars in billions: $864; Percentage of total outstanding securities that mature during time frame: 13%. Year of maturity: 2021-2030; Dollars in billions: $424; Percentage of total outstanding securities that mature during time frame: 6%. Year of maturity: 2031-2039; Dollars in billions: $188; Percentage of total outstanding securities that mature during time frame: 3%. Source: GAO analysis of Treasury data. [End of figure] Figure: Long-Term Fiscal Challenge: Debt Held by the Public as a Share of GDP Under Two Fiscal Policy Simulations (Percent of GDP): [Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] Historical high: 109% in 1946. Year: 2005; Baseline extended: 37.5; Alternative: 37.5. Year: 2006; Baseline extended: 37.1; Alternative: 37.1. Year: 2007; Baseline extended: 36.9; Alternative: 36.9. Year: 2008; Baseline extended: 40.8; Alternative: 40.8. Year: 2009; Baseline extended: 54.8; Alternative: 54.9. Year: 2010; Baseline extended: 60.1; Alternative: 60.6. Year: 2011; Baseline extended: 62; Alternative: 64.1. Year: 2012; Baseline extended: 61.6; Alternative: 66.3. Year: 2013; Baseline extended: 60.7; Alternative: 68.4. Year: 2014; Baseline extended: 60.1; Alternative: 71.1. Year: 2015; Baseline extended: 59.5; Alternative: 74. Year: 2016; Baseline extended: 59; Alternative: 77.3. Year: 2017; Baseline extended: 58.5; Alternative: 80.6. Year: 2018; Baseline extended: 56.1; Alternative: 82.3. Year: 2019; Baseline extended: 56.1; Alternative: 86.6. Year: 2020; Baseline extended: 56.2; Alternative: 91.2. Year: 2021; Baseline extended: 56.5; Alternative: 96. Year: 2022; Baseline extended: 57.1; Alternative: 101.2. Year: 2023; Baseline extended: 58; Alternative: 106.7. Year: 2024; Baseline extended: 59.2; Alternative: 112.5. Year: 2025; Baseline extended: 60.8; Alternative: 118.8. Year: 2026; Baseline extended: 62.6; Alternative: 125.3. Year: 2027; Baseline extended: 64.7; Alternative: 132.3. Year: 2028; Baseline extended: 67.2; Alternative: 139.7. Year: 2029; Baseline extended: 70.1. Alternative: 147.5. Year: 2030; Baseline extended: 73.1; Alternative: 155.6. Year: 2031; Baseline extended: 76.6; Alternative: 164.2. Year: 2032; Baseline extended: 80.4; Alternative: 173.2. Year: 2033; Baseline extended: 84.4; Alternative: 182.5. Year: 2034; Baseline extended: 88.7; Alternative: 192.1. Year: 2035; Baseline extended: 93.2; Alternative: 202. Year: 2036; Baseline extended: 98; Alternative: 212.4. Year: 2037; Baseline extended: 103.2; Alternative: 223.1. Year: 2038; Baseline extended: 108.5; Alternative: 234.1. Year: 2039; Baseline extended: 114.1; Alternative: 245.4. Year: 2040; Baseline extended: 119.9; Alternative: 257.1. Year: 2041; Baseline extended: 125.9; Alternative: 269.1. Year: 2042; Baseline extended: 132.2; Alternative: 281.4. Year: 2043; Baseline extended: 138.6; Alternative: 294.1. Year: 2044; Baseline extended: 145.3; Alternative: 306.9. Year: 2045; Baseline extended: 152.2; Alternative: 320.2. Year: 2046; Baseline extended: 159.3; Alternative: 333.8. Year: 2047; Baseline extended: 166.6; Alternative: 347.7. Year: 2048; Baseline extended: 174.2; Alternative: 362. Year: 2049; Baseline extended: 182.1; Alternative: 376.8. Year: 2050; Baseline extended: 190.2; Alternative: 391.9. Source: GAO. March 2009 simulations. Note: Data from GAO's simulations based on the 2008 Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and Medicare. We also run simulations using CBO's Social Security and Medicare projections; the results are not materially different. [End of figure] Figure: Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP Under GAO’s Alternative Simulation: [Refer to PDF for image: combined stacked vertical bar and line graph] Fiscal year: 2008; Net interest: 1.8; Social Security: 4.3; Medicare & Medicaid: 4.2; All other spending: 10.7; Revenue: 17.7. Fiscal year: 2019; Net interest: 4; Social Security: 5.2; Medicare & Medicaid: 6; All other spending: 10.7; Revenue: 18.5. Fiscal year: 2030; Net interest: 7.1; Social Security: 6; Medicare & Medicaid: 8.1; All other spending: 10.7; Revenue: 18.6. Fiscal year: 2040; Net interest: 11.8; Social Security: 6.2; Medicare & Medicaid: 9.9; All other spending: 10.7; Revenue: 18.6. Source: GAO. [End of figure] [End of presentation] On the Web: Web site: www.gao.gov/cghome/index.html. Contact: Chuck Young, Managing Director, Public Affairs: YoungC1@gao.gov (202) 512-4800: U.S. Government Accountability Office: 441 G Street NW, Room 7149: Washington, D.C. 20548: Copyright: This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. [End of section]