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United States Government Accountability Office: 

GAO: 

Health Care 20 Years from Now: 

Taking Steps Today to Meet Tomorrow's Challenges: 

Health Care Forum: 

GAO-07-1155SP: 

GAO Highlights: 

Highlights of GAO-07-1155SP, a GAO forum. 

Why GAO Convened This Forum: 

“Unless we fix our health care system—in both the public and private 
sectors—rising health care costs will have severe, adverse consequences 
for the federal budget as well as the U.S. economy in the future.” This 
is one of the key messages that Comptroller General David M. Walker has 
been delivering across the country in town-hall style meetings, in 
speeches, and on radio and television programs. 

Using another format to explore issues with health care experts, Mr. 
Walker convened a forum at GAO on May 17, 2007. Attendees included 
health policy experts, business leaders, and public officials selected 
for their subject matter knowledge and representation of various 
perspectives. 

Participants examined health care cost, access, and quality challenges 
in discussion sessions led by distinguished economists Robert 
Reischauer and Mark Pauly and other leading health care authorities 
Carolyn Clancy and Suzanne Delbanco. Nationally known health insurance 
expert Leonard Schaeffer served as the keynote lunchtime speaker. At 
the conclusion of the forum, participants were polled for their views 
on points raised during the discussions. The poll was conducted using 
electronic voting technology that produced real-time, but confidential, 
results. 

What Participants Said: 

The discussion sessions focused on three interrelated topics: cost and 
personal responsibility; coverage of the uninsured; and quality, 
standards, and outcomes. The keynote speech focused on related policy 
challenges. The following are highlights from these discussions and the 
participant poll. The proceedings are not intended to reflect the views 
of GAO. 

Health care spending. Participants did not reach agreement on whether 
the federal government should have an aggregate spending limit, such as 
a percentage of the federal budget, but supported other measures, such 
as federal value-based purchasing, reformed tax treatment of health 
care, and limits on direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription 
drugs. 

Health insurance coverage. There was near unanimity that ensuring the 
provision of health care coverage for all Americans should be a federal 
responsibility. The group also strongly agreed that the federal 
government should assure the existence of a well-functioning health 
insurance market, whereas they did not agree on whether the nation 
should continue to rely on employer-provided insurance as the dominant 
method through which most Americans obtain their health insurance 
coverage. 

Performance measures. Participants strongly supported the federal 
government’s taking the lead in developing new indicators of health 
system outcomes and performance. The group also strongly favored having 
a broad-based independent body develop national, evidence-based 
practice standards. 

Policy challenges. The keynote speaker opined that a limited window of 
time—about 8 to 10 years—remains for the health care community to 
engage in effective reform. After that, he noted, budget and national 
security concerns will dominate. Because neither purely regulatory nor 
purely market-based approaches are politically viable, pragmatism 
rather than ideology should drive health policy. He concluded that we 
need a blended strategy, stating, “We have to shape our future now or 
be its victim.” 

The figure below shows results for a sample of the 18 propositions that 
participants were polled on at the end of the forum. 

Table: Selected Results of the Health Care Forum Participant Poll: 

Prepositions: The federal government should take the lead in developing 
indicators.to measure the U.S. health care system’s outcomes and 
performance; Strongly Agree: 71%; 
Agree: 10%; 
Neither agree nor disagree: 16%; 
Disagree: 3%; 
Strongly disagree: 0%. 

Prepositions: Steps should be taken to encourage individuals to assume 
more personal responsibility for their own health and wellness; 
Strongly Agree: 55%; 
Agree: 23%; 
Neither agree nor disagree: 7%; 
Disagree: 16%; 
Strongly : 0%. 

Prepositions: The United States should balance its health care research 
investments between new discovery and assessing comparative and cost 
effectiveness for new and existing medical interventions; Strongly 
Agree: 65%; 
Agree: 23%; 
Neither agree nor disagree: 3%; 
Disagree: 7%; 
Strongly disagree: 3%. 

Source: GAO analysis of health care forum participant poll. 

[End of figure] 

[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1155SP]. 

To view the full product, click on the link above. For more 
information, contact A. Bruce Steinwald at (202) 512-7114 or 
steinwalda@gao.gov. 

[End of section] 

Contents: 

Letter: 

Preface to the Proceedings: 

Comptroller General's Introductory Presentation - David M. Walker: 

Session 1: Cost and Personal Responsibility - Robert Reischauer: 

Session 2: Covering the Uninsured - Mark Pauly: 

Lunch Session: Breaking the Policy Impasse to Secure America's Future - 
Leonard Schaeffer: 

Session 3: Quality, Standards, and Outcomes - Carolyn Clancy and 
Suzanne Delbanco: 

Wrap-Up - David M. Walker: 

Appendix I: Forum Agenda: 

Appendix II: Forum Presenters and Participants: 

Table: 

Table 1: Results of the Health Care Forum Participant Poll: 

Figures: 

Figure 1: Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP, 
Fiscal Years 2006-2040: 

Figure 2: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid Spending as a Percent 
of GDP, 2000-2080: 

United States Government Accountability Office: 

Washington, DC 20548: 

Preface to the Proceedings: 

As Comptroller General of the United States, I am afforded a mixed 
blessing. On the one hand, I am burdened with T.M.I. ("too much 
''information") regarding the future of this country's federal fiscal 
condition and outlook. I live each day with the knowledge and certainty 
that unless we fix our health care system--in both the public and 
private sectors--rising health care costs will have severe, adverse 
consequences for the federal budget as well as the U.S. economy in the 
not too distant future. On the other hand, my position and long tenure 
at GAO allow me to bring the message to the public early and often. So 
far this year, I've appeared on a number of major radio and television 
programs, including NPR's Diane Rehm Show, CBS's 60 Minutes, and Comedy 
Central's Colbert Report. Also, since 2005, I have traveled the country 
with the nonpartisan Fiscal Wake-up Tour--a broad coalition of 
individuals and organizations led by the Concord Coalition and 
involving the Brookings Institution, the Heritage Foundation, and other 
organizations--to discuss the nation's fiscal challenges in a series of 
town hall-style forums. Increasingly, and disturbingly, my fiscal 
message has become a health care spending message. In fact, health care 
costs represent the number one fiscal challenge for federal and state 
governments and a major challenge to the competitiveness of U.S. 
businesses. 

I've used another format for shining a light on the challenge posed by 
rising health care costs on the nation as a whole--two forums on health 
care held at GAO, the most recent of which occurred on May 17, 2007. 
Our discussions this year confirmed that little in the health care 
system has changed since January 2004, when GAO held its first health 
care forum. Our longer-range federal fiscal outlook, owing 
significantly to federal health care entitlement spending, remains 
grim; Medicare and Medicaid spending threaten to consume an untenable 
share of the national economy in the coming decades. Health care 
spending systemwide continues to grow at an unsustainable pace, eroding 
the ability of employers to provide coverage to their workers and 
undercutting our competitive advantage. Finally, despite spending far 
more of our economy on health care than other nations, the United 
States has above average infant mortality, below average life 
expectancy, and the largest percentage of uninsured individuals. In 
short, our health care system is badly broken. 

Nevertheless, I was encouraged to hear participants focus in a 
constructive manner on a range of possible initiatives for health care 
reform. Participants examined health care cost, access, and quality 
challenges in detail. (See app. I for an agenda of forum sessions.) The 
format was designed to maximize the opportunity for open, interactive 
dialogue without individual attribution. Forum attendees included 
health policy experts, business leaders, and public officials selected 
for their subject matter expertise and representation of various 
perspectives. (See app. II for a list of participants.) Distinguished 
economists and other leading health care authorities served as leaders 
of the forum's three discussion sessions and one served as the keynote 
lunchtime speaker. At the end of the day, participants were polled for 
their views on several key points raised during the forum regarding 
health care system challenges and reforms. 

These proceedings summarize the ideas and themes that emerged at the 
forum, the collective discussion of participants, and comments received 
from participants based on a draft copy. As such, these proceedings are 
not intended to reflect the views of GAO. Their purpose is to serve as 
a small step toward elevating public understanding of the challenge and 
acceptance of the need for change. Ultimately, it will take the 
combined efforts of many groups and individuals over an extended period 
to successfully address the issue. Still, time is relatively short 
before budgetary pressures end the chance for health experts to decide 
deliberatively and thoughtfully on the future of the nation's health 
care system. 

I wish to thank all the forum participants for taking the time to share 
their knowledge, insights, and perspectives. These will be of value to 
the American people and to their representatives in Congress as they 
communicate with their constituents about the inability of our health 
care system to maintain the status quo. We at GAO will also benefit 
from these insights as we carry out our mission to help Congress 
examine federal health care spending and its implications for all 
health care payers. I am hopeful that the American people will become 
fully engaged in national debate on this topic as a means to facilitate 
serious, timely, and sustained action that can help save our fiscal 
future for the benefit of our country, children, and grandchildren. 

Signed by: 

David M. Walker: 
Comptroller General of the United States: 

Comptroller General's Introductory Presentation: 

Health Care Forum Introductory Presentation, led by David M. Walker, 
Comptroller General of the United States. Mr. Walker opened the forum 
with a presentation entitled "Health Care System Transformation 
Challenges: The Need for Leadership, Transparency, and Accountability." 
The following are highlights of Mr. Walker's presentation. 

The federal government is on a "burning platform" and the status quo 
way of doing business is unacceptable. Today is not the problem, 
tomorrow is. Mr. Walker noted that the present value of the federal 
government's major reported long-term "fiscal exposures"--the 
difference between what we have promised and what we have in dedicated 
revenues--totaled over $50 trillion in 2006. This represents close to 
four times gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal year 2006 and is up 
from about $20 trillion, or two times GDP in 2000. If we wanted to put 
aside today enough money to cover these promises, it would take about 
$440,000 per American household, up from $190,000 in 2000. Clearly, we 
have been moving in the wrong direction in connection with our long- 
range imbalance in recent years. Equally troubling are the long-range 
fiscal simulations by GAO and others showing that, over the long term, 
the nation faces large and growing structural deficits in future years 
due primarily to rising health care costs and known demographic trends. 
(See fig. 1.) 

Figure 1: Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP, 
Fiscal Years 2006-2040: 

[See PDF for image] 

Source: GAO's January 2007 analysis. 

Note: This simulation assumes that discretionary spending grows with 
GDP after 2007 and all expiring tax provisions are extended through 
2017. Thereafter revenue returns to historical average of 18.3 percent 
of GDP plus deferred revenue. 

[End of figure] 

Absent significant changes on the spending or revenue sides of the 
budget or both, these long-term deficits will encumber a growing share 
of federal resources and test the capacity of current and future 
generations to afford both today's and tomorrow's commitments. In 
particular, public entitlement program obligations will be 
unsustainable for future generations of Americans. As the baby-boom 
generation retires, federal spending on current retirement and health 
care programs--Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid--will grow 
dramatically. A range of other federal fiscal commitments, some 
explicit and some representing implicit public expectations, also bind 
the nation's fiscal future. (See fig. 2.) 

Figure 2: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid Spending as a Percent 
of GDP, 2000-2080: 

[See PDF for image] 

Source: GAO analysis based on data from the Office of the Chief 
Actuary, Social Security Administration, Office of the Actuary, Centers 
for Medicare. 

Note: Social Security and Medicare projections based on the 
intermediate assumptions of the 2007 Trustees' Reports. Medicaid 
projections based on CBO's January 2007 short-term Medicaid estimates 
and CBO's December 2005 long-term Medicaid projections under midrange 
assumptions. 

[End of figure] 

Absent policy changes, a growing imbalance between expected federal 
spending and tax revenues will mean escalating and ultimately 
unsustainable federal deficits and debt levels. 

Mr. Walker observed that many of the federal government's current 
policies, programs, functions, and activities are based on conditions 
that existed decades ago, are not results-based, and are not well 
aligned with 21st century realities. Policymakers need to engage in a 
fundamental review, reprioritization, and reengineering of the base of 
government.[Footnote 1] With regard to our health care system, 
specifically, the public needs to be educated about the differences 
between wants, needs, affordability, and sustainability at both the 
individual and aggregate level. 

Mr. Walker concluded that comprehensive health care reform will 
probably need to occur in installments over a number of years. Our 
goals should be fourfold: 

* Provide universal access to basic and essential health care. 

* Impose limits on federal spending for health care. 

* Implement national, evidence-based medical practice standards to 
improve quality, control costs, and reduce litigation risks. 

* Take steps to ensure that all Americans assume more personal 
responsibility and accountability for their own health and wellness. 

Discussion by Forum Participants: 

After the presentation, forum participants asked questions related to 
Mr. Walker's illustrations of the long-term fiscal picture. Then the 
discussion broadened to participants' observations on the appropriate 
focus of health care reform efforts. 

More on Long-Term Fiscal Picture: 

Some participants raised the following questions about the various 
assumptions underlying GAO's simulation in figure 1: How would allowing 
the tax cuts to expire affect the long-term fiscal picture? Would 
preventing an expansion of entitlements have a greater or lesser effect 
than eliminating the tax cuts? 

Mr. Walker responded that the recent tax cuts comprise only about 1 
percent of GDP; in a GAO simulation under which the tax provisions 
expire, the long-term fiscal imbalance remains largely unchanged. Not 
surprisingly, the entitlement programs are the bigger fiscal problem. 
In addition, not only must the federal government reform Social 
Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and institute tough budget controls, 
it must also engage in comprehensive tax reform that will not undercut 
our economic growth and must reprioritize and constrain other federal 
spending. Maintaining federal revenues at their historical average of 
18.3 percent of GDP will not be enough to cover the growth in the 
entitlement programs. We must do all of these things, and the sooner 
the better because time is working against us and our debt clock is 
ticking. 

Another participant asked whether GAO has created a scenario that 
assumes the growth rate for Medicare spending is kept to the growth 
rate of GDP or GDP plus 1 percent. Mr. Walker noted that GAO's 
simulations are based on data from the Medicare Trustees' "best 
estimate" (intermediate) projections, which assume that Medicare 
spending grows at a rate of GDP plus 1 percent. He added that that this 
growth rate pushes the fiscal imbalance problem further into the future 
but does not solve it. 

Yet another participant wondered how this message, which has been heard 
for several decades, might be different today. Mr. Walker explained the 
difference as follows: the traditional measures of fiscal health-- 
economic growth, inflation, interest rates, unemployment, and capital 
markets' performance--may not point to a current fiscal crisis. 
Nevertheless, the long-range structural deficit is worse today than it 
was in the 1980s and closer to becoming a reality. Furthermore, the 
political and social circumstances today are quite different from the 
1990s. At that time, the United States was mostly borrowing from 
itself. Today our debt is increasingly held by foreign creditors who 
may put political pressure on the United States to change its policies 
in their favor. Another difference relates to the baby boom 
generation's impending retirements, which will result in an 
unprecedented strain on U.S. entitlement programs and therefore the 
federal budget. Finally, the geopolitical climate has changed such that 
there are new emerging superpowers, including China, India, and the 
European Union, competing with the United States in world markets. 

Observations on Appropriate Focus of Health Care Reform Efforts: 

Several participants agreed that addressing problems in the health care 
system cannot be limited to the federal government's role. According to 
one participant, framing the issue is the most important factor in 
finding a solution. He contended that patients' experiences with the 
health care system should be the highest priority. Another participant 
countered that the federal role was most important, as Medicare, 
Medicaid, and the federal employees' health insurance program make 
government the largest payer in the health care system and federal 
payment models have had a strong influence on private payers. For 
example, in the 1980s the movement in Medicare to pay hospitals 
prospectively based on groups of related services--that is, DRGs-- 
rather than reimbursing them their charges was adopted eventually by 
payers systemwide. 

Several participants commented on elements they believed should be the 
focus of health care system reform, offering a diversity of views: 

* We are not getting good value for our dollars spent; health care 
quality needs improvement, as demonstrated by studies finding evidence 
of both overuse and underuse of services. 

* The problem with discussions about "reforming the system" is that we 
do not have a system to reform. Ours is a disaggregated model in which 
providers operate as individual self-interested entities seeking to 
maximize their revenue. 

* We should focus on the rate of health care spending growth and its 
driver, medical technology, rather than on system reforms. 

* Looking at individuals' out-of-pocket costs--that is, copayments, 
coinsurance, and deductibles--is highly misleading as a focus for 
reform. Under our third-party payer system, the true cost of health 
care remains hidden from view. In the private sector, prices are 
neither transparent nor uniform, as negotiations between payers and 
purchasers occur under cover. Therefore, the extent to which public and 
private payers are subsidizing one another remains unknown. We need to 
examine health care costs in their totality. 

Following Mr. Walker's remarks and group discussion, participants 
engaged in discussions on three major topics: health care costs and the 
role of personal responsibility; access to and coverage for health care 
services; and health care quality, standards, and outcomes. Session 
leaders began with a presentation of key points, after which discussion 
was opened to all participants. 

Session 1: 

Cost and Personal Responsibility, led by Robert Reischauer, Urban 
Institute. To what extent or in what ways can federal health care 
spending be controlled? Should there be absolute spending limits, 
spending triggers, or spending targets? Should tax preferences be 
reformed and insurance incentives structured to foster personal 
responsibility? Dr. Reischauer developed several of these topics for 
discussion, as paraphrased here: 

Health care is the monster in the federal budget. Under certain, not 
unreasonable, assumptions about the rate at which health care costs are 
projected to grow, spending on Medicare and Medicaid will soar to 
unsustainable heights. However, "trends which are unsustainable will 
not continue." What can or should be done? Will policymakers address 
the health care spending trend in a timely and incremental fashion or 
will more drastic change be forced on us by crisis? 

Some argue for controlling federal health care entitlement spending-- 
that is, spending on Medicare and Medicaid. The question is, can 
federal spending be controlled in isolation of spending in general? The 
American public will not tolerate separate health care systems for 
services provided though entitlement programs and those provided 
through the private sector. 

Proposals to control spending with absolute limits come with an array 
of policy questions. For example: 

* What would be the measure used to set a spending limit: a percent of 
GDP? a percentage growth rate? a percentage of the federal budget? a 
per capita dollar value? 

* How do you decide on the threshold number? What factors should affect 
the threshold--for example, population size? the population's health 
status? the general inflation rate? 

* How could you have a national limit when levels of spending, growth 
rates of spending, and quality of care vary across geographic areas? If 
Medicare spending in Minnesota is half of what Miami spends, why should 
the same steps be taken to control spending in both areas? 

* How do you enforce exceeded limits: reduce provider payment updates? 
increase beneficiary premiums? tighten program eligibility rules? 

Another way to control spending relies on incentives to slow growth-
-ranging from revising tax exclusions for insurance premiums and out- 
of-pocket costs to achieving greater price transparency. A third way 
involves discouraging unhealthy behaviors, by penalizing smokers and 
drinkers, for example, with higher insurance premiums. 

At the end of the day, however, can incentives to slow growth and 
penalties for unhealthy actions result in anything more than 
rearranging the Titanic's deck chairs? In particular, can federal 
health care spending really be controlled without fundamentally 
restructuring the nation's delivery and financing systems? 

Discussion by Forum Participants: 

In response to Dr. Reischauer's presentation on taming health care 
spending growth, participants discussed the nature of the U.S. health 
care delivery system and efforts to address certain of its flaws. They 
also made observations about, among other things, the price of medical 
care in the United States relative to other countries and the role of 
medical technology in driving spending growth. 

Fragmented Delivery System, Acute-Care Focus: 

The group generally agreed that our disconnected health care delivery 
system is not designed to treat, with efficiency, individuals with 
chronic conditions (e.g., diabetes, hypertension, asthma)--the 
population that accounts for most of health care spending. As one 
participant noted, "the entire system works fine in terms of short-term 
care, such as colds or broken arms, but works terribly in treating 
chronic conditions." Another noted that Medicare in particular was 
built around paying for a disease or injured body part. Payment under 
this approach has not fostered efficiency nor is it conducive to 
disease management or prevention. For example, physicians are 
financially rewarded for the number of services they provide while 
financially discouraged from time spent on care management and 
prevention. Related to that idea, some participants noted the 
importance of integration, meaning that doctors, hospitals, and other 
health care providers should be organized to provide care and receive 
reimbursement as integrated units. Without such integration, another 
participant pointed out, current pay-for-performance initiatives aimed 
at a single provider type will not achieve desired savings and will 
remain superficial; incentives to be efficient need to be aligned 
across all providers to foster cooperation. Pay-for-performance efforts 
aimed solely at hospitals, he continued, will not work while physicians 
are ordering 80 percent of health care services. 

Some in the group cited integrated care delivery, longitudinal care (as 
opposed to episodic, illness-oriented, complaint-based care), and built-
in accountability for care as key factors needed to reform the current 
health care delivery system. Participants pointed to recent models that 
embody these factors, including: 

* the British and German health care models, where all specialists are 
employees of the hospitals, while primary care practitioners are out in 
the community. 

* provider-sponsored organizations (PSOs), which work much like a 
managed care HMO, except that they are formed by a group of hospitals 
and doctors who assume the financial risk of providing care to 
patients. 

* the medical home model, in which patients have direct access to one 
physician ("my personal physician") who accepts responsibility for 
managing their care, makes arrangements with teams of additional health 
professionals to provide services outside the practice's expertise, and 
is paid under a reimbursement system that rewards physicians and 
patients financially for choosing medical practices that foster quality 
and efficiency. 

* bundled payment systems, in which flat fees are paid for major 
procedures, such as coronary artery bypass surgery; these fees include 
some months of follow-up treatment and cover additional treatment if 
the patient suffers complications or is readmitted to the hospital. 

* Medicare's physician group practice demonstration, which tests a 
hybrid payment methodology that combines Medicare fee-for-service 
payments with a bonus that participating physicians can earn by 
demonstrating savings through better management of patient care and 
services and meeting quality performance targets. 

At various points in this discussion, several participants asserted 
that efforts to contain health care spending by federal payers-- 
particularly Medicare--could not be effective if conducted in isolation 
from health care spending by private payers. 

Additional Observations on Health Care Spending Growth: 

Some participants indicated that constraining capacity is a strategy 
that should be added to the list of reforms Dr. Reischauer presented. 
One explained that there has been a push to increase the number of 
physicians educated in our country, which, in leading to an increased 
number of physicians, could result in increased costs ranging from an 
estimated $5 billion to $50 billion a year. 

Taking a different tack, another participant noted that the United 
States does not differ markedly from other countries in health care 
utilization, capacity, or technology. For example, she observed that 
the United States does not have more physicians per capita nor more 
hospital beds per capita than other countries and that Germany and 
Switzerland are also on the cutting edge of medical technology. The 
difference between our nation and others, she contended, is in price: 
in the United States, the payment level for services and for providers 
is higher than in other countries. 

With regard to health information technology (IT), one participant saw 
it as an important part of the solution to health care cost control. 
She gave an example of small businesses that have not had their health 
insurance premiums go up for 5 years because of their ability to use 
health IT to control costs. Several other participants noted the 
potential for health IT to improve the quality of care but believed 
that on a wide scale it would have little effect on cost, given the 
nature of major health care cost drivers. 

Several participants noted the major contribution of medical technology 
advances to rapid health care cost growth. The dilemma for society, 
contended one, was to balance the seemingly limitless potential to 
improve technology against the cost of doing so. The participant 
observed that technology could be vastly improved for automobiles, but 
people would not be willing to pay for it. He concluded that work needs 
to be done in the area of comparative effectiveness--that is, comparing 
the relative benefits and costs of drugs, medical devices, and medical 
procedures designed to achieve the same outcome. 

One participant suggested that a more fundamental problem existed than 
could be addressed by imposing spending limits, changing the health 
care tax exclusions, or encouraging better health habits nationwide. 
Citing noted economist Professor Uwe Reinhardt of Princeton University, 
he observed that our health care delivery system is like an elephant 
walking over trees and policy makers are tiny people hitting the 
elephant with sticks. In other words, the real problem--provider 
oligopolies (such as specialty hospitals that can self-refer) and 
unsavory relationships between physicians and drug companies and 
physicians and the research community--is massive and reforms to bring 
down health care spending do not address these complex and destructive 
relationships. 

Relevant Propositions and Electronic Poll Results: 

The electronic poll conducted at the end of the forum asked for 
participants' views on points raised in session leaders' presentations 
or in the discussions following. Participants could strongly agree, 
agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree with 
18 propositions presented. Below are the poll results for the 
propositions related to points made in session 1. Using a two-part test 
for statistical significance, we sought to determine the extent to 
which participants agreed with each of 18 propositions. For a 
comprehensive look at the poll results, see pages 27-29. 

A spending limit--such as a percentage of the federal budget--should be 
used as a policy tool to control federal health care spending; 
No agreement. 

Certain federal tax preferences for health care should be revised to 
encourage more efficient use of health care products and services; 
Strong agreement. 

The federal government should impose constraints on the development and 
diffusion of medical technology; 
Agreement. 

Steps should be taken to encourage individuals to assume more personal 
responsibility for their own health and wellness; 
Strong agreement. 

Session 2: 

Covering the Uninsured, led by Mark Pauly, Wharton Business School, 
University of Pennsylvania. Should every American have at least some 
health insurance? If yes, why and how much? What, if any, federal role 
is there in ensuring some basic level of coverage to all Americans? 
Should the minimum coverage for different people be uniform for 
everyone or different for people at different income or health status 
levels? Dr. Pauly developed several of these topics for discussion, as 
paraphrased here: 

What do we know for sure about the uninsured population? Dr. Pauly 
identified some facts and conditions that health care experts generally 
agree on. 

* The uninsured population is a very heterogeneous group. Compared with 
the insured population, the uninsured population has a higher share of 
those who are nonworking, poor or near poor, or at high risk for health 
problems. However, many of the uninsured are working, not poor, and not 
at risk for serious health problems. 

* People are uninsured for different reasons: some because the cost of 
insurance is high relative to their total income and other basic needs, 
and others because the cost is high relative to the benefits they 
expect to receive, even though they may be able to "afford" it. This 
latter category includes young adults who do not expect to be in ill 
health. 

* From a policy standpoint, one of the most controversial uninsured 
subpopulations is the "Tweeners"--those individuals with incomes above 
the poverty level (up to 150 percent of poverty) but below the median 
income (about 325 to 350 percent of poverty). Three-fourths of the 
nation's Tweener population is insured, mostly through private 
insurance. Nevertheless, Tweeners make up about half of the uninsured 
population. With this blend of insured and uninsured in the Tweener 
population, policymakers are concerned with "crowd out"--which occurs 
when a public program attracts individuals who might otherwise obtain 
health insurance through the existing private market, thereby shifting 
health care costs to the public sector. 

* The current tax exclusion for employer-sponsored health benefits is 
inequitable and inefficient. Under this exclusion, an employee's health 
insurance benefits are not considered income and therefore not subject 
to income tax. Generally, people who can get health insurance through 
their employer thus get favorable tax treatment not available to 
others. 

* Being uninsured harms the health of those who are poor and near poor. 

Despite this general agreement regarding the uninsured population, Dr. 
Pauly continued, certain facts are in dispute. For one thing, research 
cannot quantify the existence or magnitude of harm to Tweeners of not 
being insured. There are correlations between insurance and health 
status, but correlation does not translate neatly into causation. 
Moreover, it is not clear that extensive coverage results in better 
health. While catastrophic coverage for the uninsured appears to be a 
good idea, research has not shown whether more generous coverage would 
have a significant positive effect on health. 

Similarly, the "distributional effect" of eliminating the tax exclusion 
of employment-based insurance is unknown. Specifically, to what extent 
would dropping the health insurance tax exclusion affect different 
population subgroups--the currently insured and uninsured-- in terms of 
health coverage and health status? In a related point, Dr. Pauly noted 
that some proponents of coverage expansion advocate for uniform 
coverage for all Americans. However, uniform benefits for all is 
inefficient for producing equal access to care. Policies based on tax 
subsidy incentives, for example, should be targeted to low-income 
individuals if equity is to be achieved. 

Dr. Pauly concluded his presentation by noting that insurance coverage 
reform decisions will likely reflect societal and individual values, 
some of which are moral; others, more self-interested. Regardless of 
these differences, it appears that much of society is willing to incur 
costs to increase Americans' access to medical services, improve their 
health status, and reduce their chances of financial distress. 

Discussion by Forum Participants: 

Following Dr. Pauly's presentation, participants examined issues 
associated with expanding health insurance coverage. 

Observations on Universal Coverage: 

One participant called attention to the findings of a survey of the 
Citizen's Health Care Working Group--a 14-member body created by 
Congress and appointed by the Comptroller General. According to the 
survey, most citizens believe that all Americans should have access to 
health care coverage. The survey also found that most people are 
willing to share financial responsibility for extending coverage to the 
uninsured and providing financial security to protect individuals from 
medical bankruptcy. 

In reaction to the idea of universal coverage, participants made 
several points: 

* Caring for the uninsured now is costly; one participant put the cost 
at $126 billion annually, contending that an additional several billion 
dollars is spent in lost productivity because of uninsured workers' 
delay in treating health problems. 

* It is important to consider whether dollars spent now on the 
uninsured population's costs could be reinvested so that everyone had 
access to a core set of services and coverage for catastrophic health 
events. 

* The lack of political will to achieve universal coverage exists 
because of the absence of consensus on how to expand coverage and the 
peril politicians face when specifying the cost and details of a 
coverage expansion plan. 

Defining Basic Benefits: 

A number of participants agreed that in considering policies to broaden 
health insurance coverage, it is not feasible to identify a "basic" or 
"minimum" benefit package. For example, one participant noted that "the 
search for a basic benefit package is akin to the search for the Holy 
Grail." Others pointed out that a consensus exists for considering only 
a small number of services, such as certain cosmetic surgery, as 
"luxury" medical care. Importantly, what is basic for someone with 
asthma or other chronic health condition may not be basic for a healthy 
individual. Further, one participant noted, regardless of what services 
are included, budget constraints are the most important factor in 
shaping any benefit package. 

Potential Models for Expanding Coverage: 

Several participants noted that there are ways to proceed without 
trying to tackle the definition of a basic benefits package. One 
example is to expand catastrophic health insurance. Another participant 
noted existing programs that can serve as models for expanding health 
insurance, although with some qualifications: 

* Medicare is the most popular insurance program in the United States 
and should be considered as a potential model. At the same time, the 
benefit package is considered to be limited, lacking in stop-loss 
provisions, and most beneficiaries have additional insurance to 
supplement Medicare. 

* State Medicaid benefit packages often include a broad range of 
services and might be described as "generous," but because provider 
reimbursement levels are often very low, access to care often can be 
limited. 

* The Federal Employees Health Benefit Program (FEHBP) offers an array 
of options and choice to a sizable population across the United States. 
However, the population covered under FEHBP is employed and has 
reasonably good purchasing power. The cost-sharing requirements that 
are manageable for this population may not be equitable or affordable 
for the poor or near-poor populations. 

* The state of Oregon experimented with defining a core set of services 
as part of proposals to expand coverage statewide; but under public 
pressure, the core set broadened over time, which added to the 
proposals' cost. 

Coverage Solutions for a Heterogeneous Population: 

Several participants noted that because the uninsured population is 
heterogeneous, there should be different solutions to increasing 
coverage for the different subpopulations. For example, one participant 
felt that public sector programs could be used to expand coverage for 
the poor and near poor while private sector plans could play more of a 
role in attracting those uninsured who have higher incomes. Another 
participant pointed out that requiring uniform health insurance 
coverage is inefficient because people have different preferences for 
the amount of coverage they are willing to pay for. 

Even under a pluralistic approach to expanding coverage, several 
participants noted that a dominant health care payer, such as Medicare, 
needs to be a larger player in the market. Otherwise, achievements in 
access to care, control of system costs, and widespread use of 
information technology and quality will likely be limited. 

Relevant Propositions and Electronic Poll Results: 

The electronic poll conducted at the end of the forum asked for 
participants' views on points raised in session leaders' presentations 
or in the discussions following. Participants could strongly agree, 
agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree with 
18 propositions presented. Below are the poll results for the 
propositions related to points made in session 2. Using a two-part test 
for statistical significance, we sought to determine the extent to 
which participants agreed with each of 18 propositions. For a 
comprehensive look at the poll results, see pages 27-29. 

The federal government should ensure that all Americans are covered for 
basic and essential health care services; 
Strong agreement. 

States, rather than the federal government, should take the lead in 
expanding access to health insurance to all residents; 
No agreement. 

The United States should continue to rely on employer-sponsored health 
care coverage as the backbone of the U.S. system of coverage; 
No agreement. 

The federal government should assure that a health insurance market 
exists that adequately pools risk and offers alternative levels of 
coverage; 
Agreement. 

Lunch Session: 

"Breaking the Policy Impasse to Secure America's Future," led by 
Leonard Schaeffer, founding chairman and CEO of WellPoint and former 
administrator of the Health Care Financing Administration. Mr. 
Schaeffer currently serves as Senior Advisor to TPG Capital. 

Mr. Schaeffer recapped several themes that emerged in two earlier 
sessions: the unsustainability of federal health entitlement spending, 
the demographic shift to an aging society that will consume more health 
care than ever, the lack of standard medical practices and evidence- 
based care, and the increasing burden on employers to finance health 
care. He followed with a discussion of barriers to implementing good 
policy, noting, among other things, that: 

* physicians are not trained to manage the health care system; they 
function as individual contributors whose defense of their professional 
autonomy contributes significantly to a system lacking leadership and 
accountability; 

* consumers, spurred by advertising and the Internet, demand access to 
new medical technology, without knowledge of its value, safety, or 
efficacy; 

* information on price and quality, needed for the marketplace to work 
more effectively, is lacking on the major drivers of health care 
spending; and: 

* advocating rational health policy is a "third rail" for politicians, 
as constituencies in health care are multiple and each has objectives 
that conflict with one another. 

Mr. Schaeffer contended that pragmatism rather than ideology should 
drive health policy. For example, proponents of a market-based strategy 
want to reform the insurance market and tax policies, rely on 
competition and consumer choice, and solve problems through increased 
use of information technology and greater price transparency. 
Alternatively, proponents of a regulatory strategy want to rely on 
government control of costs and spending, leverage federal programs, 
and establish best practices. Mr. Schaeffer argued for a blended 
strategy--one that coherently combines the best elements of the 
marketplace and regulation--to increase access, contain costs, and 
improve quality. 

Mr. Schaeffer concluded that a limited window of time--about 8 to 10 
years--remains for the health care community to engage in effective 
reform. After that, if nothing is done, federal health care spending 
will be at the mercy of budget hawks eager to lower the deficit. If the 
budgeteers are not successful, the national security experts will 
intervene, seeking to significantly reduce our debt to foreign nations 
whose interests and values may be contrary to ours. "We have to shape 
our future now or," he forecasted, "be its victim." 

Mr. Schaeffer sprinkled his presentation with candid commentary, some 
of which is highlighted below: 

Regarding reliance on consumerism to lower costs: 

* "American consumers don't have enough information in the health care 
market as opposed to other markets. To ask them to behave as good 
consumers is not reasonable." 

* "In the few cases where consumers have price information, they don't 
seem to comparison shop. If consumers don't price shop when it's 
entirely their health care dollar, why would they do it with other 
payers' money?" 

* "Do YOU have restless leg syndrome?" Who ever heard of it before the 
ad for the new drug? Consumers see ads, self-diagnose, and then go see 
their doctor." 

Regarding unmoderated growth in medical technology: 

* "Health care is one sector of the economy where the introduction of 
new technology does not replace the old, but adds to it." 

* "Health care technology diffuses on the 5 o'clock news. Every news 
station has a doctor now. Patients hear about new medicines before 
their doctors get a chance to read about them." 

* Regarding health care reform solutions: 

* "This is an area of the American economy that is a significant risk 
to our economic future. Everyone who pays a bill is desperate for 
savings." 

* "Health information technology won't solve the problem. Health IT is 
required to collect data--then we have to turn data into information 
for decisionmaking and then make sane decisions." 

* "The best hope is to leverage federal Medicare and Medicaid by fiat, 
because the government can do things that other payers are afraid to 
do. It is not an easy position but the private sector will follow." 

* "It is not the market vs. government. We need a hybrid solution." 

Session 3: 

Quality, Standards, and Outcomes, co-led by Carolyn Clancy, M.D., 
Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and Suzanne Delbanco, The 
Leapfrog Group. How can national practice standards be developed to 
measure provider performance and what should be the federal role? How 
can IT facilitate quality measurement and improved outcomes? What do 
international comparisons of health outcomes and other such measures 
tell us about quality? The two session leaders discussed these and 
other issues in their respective presentations, which are merged here 
for purposes of exposition. 

The presenters raised several interrelated points on developing quality 
measures and addressing structural challenges. They noted that the need 
for improvement in health care quality is widely recognized. Studies 
confirm that a substantial gap exists between the best possible care 
and actual care. To illustrate that gap, experts estimate that 
providers do not "do the right thing" between 40 and 50 percent of the 
time. Not surprisingly, health care purchasers are increasingly 
monitoring the performance of their network providers. However, these 
monitoring initiatives are disparate and uncoordinated, lacking in an 
alignment of goals and consistency of measures nationwide. Part of the 
problem is structural, in that health plans, providers, consumers, and 
purchasers are all responsible, but no one is accountable. For example, 
about two-thirds of outpatient visits are to small group practices of 
fewer than five physicians. Because of their small size, there is not 
likely any one individual who is responsible for monitoring quality, 
while the infrastructure in small group practices--that is, the 
administrative resources to measure and monitor quality--is likely 
weak. 

What can be done in a system in which different stakeholders have 
diverse goals--that is, one seeks to reduce costs, another aims at 
ensuring error-free care, and others want to minimize administrative 
burden? The presenters offered these ideas and challenges: 

* The science of measurement is still evolving. Today's measures are 
tightly linked to site of care--for example, the physician's office, 
the hospital, or the rehabilitation center. This means that providers 
are blind to what happens when a patient leaves their enterprise. To 
date, measures that encompass episodes of care are not available, 
although researchers are working toward developing these measures. 

* With regard to the relevance of international comparisons, the 
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which 
reports on health care quality indicators, concludes that no country 
does the best or worst on all measures, but some countries do better 
than others, and every country has areas of improvement. Similarly, 
within the United States, health care spending and outcomes can vary 
dramatically by geographic area. Although benchmarks should be set 
nationally, it is important to observe differences at the local level, 
since change is driven locally. 

* Finding a cohesive set of quality measures is a challenge. Some 
purchasers seek measures that can lead to improved quality care and 
reduced costs. The measures do not have to be perfect, as long as they 
improve on the current low level of information. To date, public 
agencies and private companies have organized under the National 
Quality Forum (NQF), a body created to promote a common approach to 
measuring health care quality. 

* In 2002, NQF sought to standardize adverse reporting by compiling a 
list of "never events"--safety errors that should never happen in a 
clinical setting but should be reported when they do. Since then, the 
list has been adopted or modified by other governmental entities and 
organizations. For example, the Leapfrog Group, an organization whose 
members include large public and private sector health care purchasers, 
asks hospitals to adopt the Group's own never events policy. This 
policy entails telling patients of errors, not billing the patient for 
care associated with the error, reporting the error as appropriate, and 
conducting a root cause analysis. Leapfrog is interested in the never 
events policy because it addresses cost and quality simultaneously. 

* In their search for standards, some purchasers are seeking health 
plans that, in their measurement initiatives, address the Institute of 
Medicine's six key traits of high-quality care--safe, timely, 
effective, equitable, efficient, and patient-centered. 

* How measurement information should be used--to reward performance or 
improvement--is another factor needing deliberation. One answer is to 
have incentives that not only reward "leading edge" providers but also 
bring along providers that are not at the top in performance. 

* Reporting to the public on physician and hospital performance 
matters. In fact, public reporting has been shown to lead to 
improvement in care. Whether the reporting should be voluntary or 
mandatory remains problematic, as drawbacks exist with both. Voluntary 
reporting may attract only those with nothing to hide, but mandatory 
reporting may suffer from trying to meet the needs of the lowest common 
denominator, which may not be sufficient to illuminate differences in 
quality among providers. 

* Public reporting is a "messy business." Purchasers are not consistent 
in the metrics they use to assess providers' performance, resulting in 
challenges in aggregating data across providers. The lack of uniformity 
adds to the difficulty of achieving transparency--making public the 
basis for reporting and the algorithms used. 

* Health IT is not a magic bullet to improve health care quality on its 
own. Rather, it can make the right thing to do the easy thing to do. 
The evidence that health IT saves money or results in improved quality 
is thin, as a substantial number of studies on health IT effectiveness 
are concentrated in four large institutions that had a strong champion 
inside the organization, ran home-grown health IT systems, and had 
lengthy experience with health IT. Less is known about the success of 
currently available commercial products. 

Discussion by Forum Participants: 

Following the presentations by Dr. Clancy and Ms. Delbanco, 
participants elaborated on points the presenters raised, including 
national goal-setting, cost impact, public reporting, and health IT. 

Setting National Goals: 

Participants reiterated the points raised by the presenters, noting in 
particular the importance of having national goals and benchmarks to 
define the performance expected from the health system. For example, 
some participants thought the collection and analysis of data should be 
done nationally; in deciding how to change practices, however, the 
scope of data analysis should be local to account for area differences: 
what works in one place may not in another. Others noted that no means 
exists for coordinating a national focus on quality. One participant 
thought the NQF could serve that coordinating function, but to do so 
would require more financial support, including federal resources. 
Another participant concurred that the efforts of NQF were good but 
questioned whether its consensus-driven model was bold enough for the 
level of reform needed. 

Impact of Quality Improvements on Cost: 

Several participants were skeptical that quality improvements, 
desirable in and of themselves, would also save money. They argued that 
there was at best a weak relationship between quality and cost and that 
other actions would need to be taken to achieve cost savings. To 
illustrate, one participant noted that hospitals were unlikely to agree 
to forgo payments for certain never events, such as surgery on the 
wrong body part or a mismatched blood transfusion. As a result, while 
reducing avoidable never events could improve quality, different 
incentives would be needed to contain costs. 

Public Reporting: 

Some participants identified the need to present quality information 
differently for consumers and professionals. For example, one noted, if 
we report that Hospital A has a 1 percent error rate and Hospital B has 
a 0.1 percent error rate, consumers shrug. But if we report that 
Hospital A's error rate is 10 times that of Hospital B, consumers 
react. We don't want to scare consumers, but we need to dramatize the 
issue for them. Another participant agreed that public reporting is not 
yet "consumer friendly." However, she also noted that consumers want 
information on quality and want the information when they actually get 
the care, according to survey findings released by The Commonwealth 
Fund. She reported that consumers have not had much impact on health 
care quality to date and need to get more involved. At the same time, 
health care systems must get better at making information more 
"actionable" for consumers. 

One participant cautioned that although we have some reasonable quality 
measures now (such as care for diabetes) and are developing more, some 
aspects of care may never be conducive to measurement or public 
reporting; instead, the attention should be placed on structural, 
payment, and organizational issues, including the need to create 
appropriate financial incentives and encourage stronger health IT to 
manage risk. Other participants countered that, although the current 
measures are not sufficient to drive change, improvements can happen as 
more measures are developed and reporting becomes more routine. 

In the end, one participant concluded, quality measures need to be 
driven by the "real world" of physicians practicing in their offices 
and doing what needs to be done medically, not just because the 
government is measuring it. Another participant suggested that Congress 
create a model system in each state that the local physicians could 
observe in operation to see how it could work for them. A third 
observed that most physicians view quality initiatives as "background 
noise," pointing to a key cultural challenge that needs to be met. 

Limits of Health IT: 

Participants noted that if health IT is to be successful in affecting 
cost, quality, or both, a strong cultural change is needed systemwide, 
as well as alignment between the entity making the health IT investment 
and the savings achieved. Part of the cultural change includes assuring 
that the smallest unit in the health system has health IT capability. 
For example, Medicare's quality improvement organizations are working 
with small physician groups to implement health IT. Additionally, 
health IT investment may be more likely when cost savings accrue to the 
entity making the investment. For example, VA applied health IT to 
support the use of its cost-saving formulary. This positive impact was 
supported by an underlying structure of accountability within a closed 
system. 

Relevant Propositions and Electronic Poll Results: 

The electronic poll conducted at the end of the forum asked for 
participants' views on points raised in session leaders' presentations 
or in the discussions following. Participants could strongly agree, 
agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree with 
18 propositions presented. Below are the poll results for the 
propositions related to points made in session 3. Using a two-part test 
for statistical significance, we sought to determine the extent to 
which participants agreed with each of 18 propositions. For a 
comprehensive look at the poll results, see pages 27-29. 

A public-private entity should be created to assess and disseminate its 
findings on comparative and cost effectiveness of health care products 
and services; 
Strong agreement. 

OECD health care measures (population-based, resource, and spending) 
are a valid gauge of U.S. health care system performance; 
Agreement. 

The federal government should take the lead in developing indicators 
(such as comparisons across regions, trends over time) to measure the 
U.S. health care system's outcomes and performance; 
Strong agreement. 

The federal government should create financial incentives to expedite 
the use of information technology in health care, ensuring it 
interoperability and wide adoption; 
Strong agreement. 

Wrap-Up: 

In the forum's final session, Mr. Walker polled participants on their 
views regarding the health care system challenges and reform options 
that surfaced in the preceding sessions. Through the use of interactive 
voting technology, participants registered, on a 5-point scale, the 
extent of their agreement or disagreement with 18 propositions. (See 
table 1 at the end of this section listing each proposition and the 
polling results.) The technology allowed for the voting to be real-time 
but confidential. 

The poll was not intended to be scientific: our participant sample was 
neither random nor large enough to be statistically representative. 
However, forum managers, through careful development of the participant 
list, sought to ensure that the forum presentations, discussions, and 
poll results would not be biased in favor of any particular view of 
health system maladies or directions for reform. 

Taken as a whole, the poll results suggest several themes from 
participants' collective views on likely avenues for effective reform. 
The discussion below seeks to capture these themes, referring to the 
numbers of relevant propositions shown in table 1. 

Health Care Spending: 

The session discussions made it clear that nearly all participants felt 
some urgency about gaining control of health care spending in the 
United States. The group did not reach agreement about whether an 
aggregate spending limit, such as a percentage of the federal budget, 
should be used as a tool to control spending (#1) but strongly 
supported other measures, such as instituting value-based purchasing in 
federal health care programs (#5), changing the tax treatment of health 
care to encourage greater efficiency (#3), and limiting direct-to- 
consumer advertising of prescription drugs (#6). The group strongly 
supported encouraging individuals to assume greater responsibility for 
their health (#7) and generally agreed with permitting further 
importation of prescription drugs (#8) and aiming efficiency incentives 
at the individual patient (#2). 

Health Insurance Coverage: 

Several of the themes emerging from the forum discussions and 
participant poll related to the role of the federal government in 
addressing health care challenges. In particular, despite the efforts 
of several states to reduce the ranks of the uninsured (#10), there was 
near unanimity among participants that ensuring the provision of health 
care coverage for all Americans should be a federal responsibility 
(#9). Further, the group agreed that the federal government should 
assure the existence of a well-functioning health insurance market 
(#12), whereas they reached no agreement on whether the nation should 
continue to rely on employer-provided insurance as the dominant method 
through which most Americans obtain their health insurance coverage 
(#11). 

Technology: 

In forum discussions and the participants' poll, participants generally 
favored constraining the development and diffusion of medical 
technology (#4). They strongly supported balancing the nation's 
research investments between new discovery and assessing the value of 
new and existing technologies (#18) and strongly favored the creation 
of a public-private entity to assess the comparative and cost 
effectiveness of health care products and services (#13). While 
discussions indicated that the diffusion of health IT was no panacea, 
there was strong support for government subsidy in this area (#16). 

Performance Measures: 

Forum discussions generally supported the notion that reforms should be 
accompanied by the development of performance measures to gauge success 
or failure at meeting reform objectives. In the participants' poll, two-
thirds of participants supported the view that OECD measures, which 
compare health system performance measures across countries, are a 
valid gauge of U.S. health system performance (#14), and four-fifths 
supported the federal government's taking the lead in developing new 
indicators of health system outcomes and performance (#15). Consistent 
with this view, the group also strongly favored the development of 
national practice standards by an independent body that includes key 
stakeholders (#17). 

Poll Results: 

In conducting the participant poll, we sought to determine the extent 
to which participants agreed with each of 18 propositions, using a two- 
part test. First, we tested for the existence of a statistical 
difference (significance) between the responses of two groups-- 
participants who said they agreed or strongly agreed and participants 
who said they disagreed or strongly disagreed. If the test did not find 
the difference to be statistically significant, we characterized the 
result as "no agreement." If the test found the difference to be 
significant, we conducted a further test to determine whether a 
statistically significant difference existed between the proportion of 
participants who agreed and the proportion of those who strongly 
agreed. If the test found a statistical difference, we characterized 
the result as "strong agreement." Otherwise, we characterized the 
result as "agreement." (See table 1.) 

Table 1: Results of the Health Care Forum Participant Poll: 

Propositions: 1. A spending limit--such as a percentage of the federal 
budget--should be used as a policy tool to control federal health care 
spending; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 26; 
Percentages: Agree: 19; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 13; 
Percentages: Disagree: 23; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 19; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: No agreement. 

Propositions: 2. Fostering efficiency incentives at the individual 
patient level is an appropriate and effective way to moderate health 
care spending increases; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 23; 
Percentages: Agree: 29; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 13; 
Percentages: Disagree: 19; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 16; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Agreement. 

Propositions: 3. Certain federal tax preferences for health care should 
be revised to encourage more efficient use of health care products and 
services; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 58; 
Percentages: Agree: 39; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 4. The federal government should impose constraints on 
the development and diffusion of medical technology; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 36; 
Percentages: Agree: 39; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 7; 
Percentages: Disagree: 7; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 13; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Agreement. 

Propositions: 5. The federal government should revise its payment 
systems and leverage its purchasing authority to foster value-based 
purchasing for health care products and services; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 77; 
Percentages: Agree: 13; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 6. Direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription drugs 
should be limited; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 52; 
Percentages: Agree: 26; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 13; 
Percentages: Disagree: 10; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 7. Steps should be taken to encourage individuals to 
assume more personal responsibility for their own health and wellness; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 55; 
Percentages: Agree: 23; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 7; 
Percentages: Disagree: 16; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 8. Further importation of prescription drugs (beyond 
current levels) should be allowed; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 39; 
Percentages: Agree: 32; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 23; 
Percentages: Disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Agreement. 

Propositions: 9. The federal government should ensure that all 
Americans are covered for basic and essential health care services; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 73; 
Percentages: Agree: 23; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 10. States, rather than the federal government, should 
take the lead in expanding access to health insurance to all residents; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 3; 
Percentages: Agree: 17; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 17; 
Percentages: Disagree: 33; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 30; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: No agreement. 

Propositions: 11. The United States should continue to rely on employer-
sponsored health care coverage as the backbone of the U.S. system of 
coverage; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 16; 
Percentages: Agree: 26; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 19; 
Percentages: Disagree: 26; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 13; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: No agreement. 

Propositions: 12. The federal government should assure that a health 
insurance market exists that adequately pools risk and offers 
alternative levels of coverage; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 48; 
Percentages: Agree: 36; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 10; 
Percentages: Disagree: 7; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Agreement. 

Propositions: 13. A public-private entity should be created to assess 
and disseminate its findings on comparative and cost effectiveness of 
health care products and services; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 87; 
Percentages: Agree: 10; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 14. OECD health care measures (population-based, 
resource, and spending) are a valid gauge of U.S. health care system 
performance; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 13; 
Percentages: Agree: 53; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 10; 
Percentages: Disagree: 7; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 17; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Agreement. 

Propositions: 15. The federal government should take the lead in 
developing indicators (such as comparisons across regions, trends over 
time) to measure the U.S. health care system's outcomes and 
performance; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 71; 
Percentages: Agree: 10; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 16; 
Percentages: Disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 16. The federal government should create financial 
incentives to expedite the use of information technology in health 
care, ensuring its interoperability and wide adoption; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 48; 
Percentages: Agree: 32; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 10; 
Percentages: Disagree: 7; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 17. National practice standards should be established by 
an independent body that includes key stakeholders; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 58; 
Percentages: Agree: 26; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 10; 
Percentages: Disagree: 7; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 0; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Propositions: 18. The United States should balance its health care 
research investments between new discovery and assessing comparative 
and cost effectiveness for new and existing medical interventions; 
Percentages: Strongly agree: 65; 
Percentages: Agree: 23; 
Percentages: Neither agree nor disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Disagree: 7; 
Percentages: Strongly disagree: 3; 
Percentages: Summary result[A]: Strong agreement. 

Source: GAO analysis of health care forum participant poll. 

Notes: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. 

[A] Significance is at the .05 level (using a one-tailed test). 

[End of table] 

[End of section] 

Appendix I: Forum Agenda: 

8:45: Welcome and Introduction: Bruce Steinwald--Director, Health Care 
Team, GAO: 

8:50: Introductory Presentation and Group Discussion: David M. Walker-- 
Comptroller General of the United States: 

9:45: Session 1: Cost and Personal Responsibility: Robert Reischauer-- 
President, Urban Institute: 

To what extent or in what ways can federal health care spending be 
controlled? Should there be absolute spending limits, spending 
triggers, or spending targets? Should tax preferences be reformed and 
insurance incentives structured to foster personal responsibility? 

10:45: Break: 

11:00: Session 2: Access and Coverage: Mark Pauly--Professor of Health 
Care Systems, Business and Public Policy, Wharton Business School: 

Should every American have at least some health insurance? If yes, why 
and how much? What, if any, federal role is there in ensuring some 
basic level of coverage to all Americans? Should the minimum coverage 
for different people be uniform for everyone or different for people at 
different income or health status levels? 

12:00: Break: 

12:15: Luncheon: Leonard Schaeffer--Senior Advisor, TPG Capital; 
Founding Chairman and CEO, WellPoint; Former Administrator, Health Care 
Financing Administration: 

1:00: Session 3: Quality, Standards, and Outcomes: Carolyn Clancy-- 
Director, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality--and Suzanne 
Delbanco--CEO, The Leapfrog Group: 

How can national practice standards be developed to measure provider 
performance and what should be the federal role? How can IT facilitate 
quality measurement and improved outcomes? What do international 
comparisons of health outcomes and other such measures tell us about 
quality? 

2:00: Session 4: Real-Time Poll of Forum Participants. 

Use of interactive voting technology to assess the group's views on 
long-term goals and promising first steps. 

2:45: Wrap-up and Concluding Comments: David M. Walker--Comptroller 
General of the United States: 

3:00: Adjourn: 

[End of section] 

Appendix II: Forum Presenters and Participants: 

Forum Presenters: 

Carolyn Clancy: Director, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality: 

Suzanne Delbanco: CEO, The Leapfrog Group: 

Mark Pauly Bendheim: Professor of Health Care Systems, Wharton Business 
School, University of Pennsylvania: 

Robert Reischauer: President, The Urban Institute: 

Leonard Schaeffer: Senior Advisor, TPG Capital; founding chairman and 
CEO of WellPoint; former administrator of the Health Care Financing 
Administration: 

David M. Walker: Comptroller General of the United States: 

Forum Participants: 

Henry Aaron: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, The Brookings 
Institution: 

Robert Berenson: Senior Fellow, The Urban Institute: 

Nancy Chockley: President, National Institute for Health Care 
Management Foundation: 

Nancy-Ann DeParle: Managing Director, Healthcare, CCMP Capital: 

Elizabeth Docteur: Deputy Head, Health Division, Organisation for 
Economic Cooperation and Development: 

Elliott Fisher: Professor of Medicine and Community and Family 
Medicine, Dartmouth Medical School, Dartmouth College: 

Richard Frank: Margaret T. Morris Professor of Health Economics, 
Harvard Medical School, Harvard University: 

Anne Gauthier: Senior Policy Director, Commission on a High Performance 
Health System, The Commonwealth Fund: 

Gail Graham: Director of Health Data and Informatics, Veterans Health 
Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs: 

Robert Greenstein: Executive Director, Center on Budget and Policy 
Priorities: 

Mary Kay Henry: International Executive Vice President, Service 
Employees International Union: 

John Iglehart: Founding Editor, Health Affairs: 

Karen Ignagni: President and CEO, America's Health Insurance Plans: 

The Honorable Nancy Johnson: Fellow, Institute of Politics, John F. 
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University: 

Randy Johnson: Director of Human Resources Strategic Initiatives, 
Motorola, Inc. 

Charles "Chip" Kahn: President, Federation of American Hospitals: 

Marjorie Kanof: Managing Director, Health Care Team, GAO: 

Herb Kuhn: Acting Deputy Administrator, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid 
Services: 

Patricia Maryland: Chair, Citizens' Health Care Working Group: 

Mark Miller: Executive Director, Medicare Payment Advisory Commission: 

Ron Pollack: Executive Director, Families USA: 

John Rother: Group Executive Officer of Policy and Strategy, AARP: 

Dallas Salisbury: President and CEO, Employee Benefit Research 
Institute: 

Henry Simmons: President, National Coalition on Health Care: 

Bruce Steinwald: Director, Health Care Team, GAO: 

Richard Umbdenstock: President and CEO, American Hospital Association: 

Bruce Vavrichek: Assistant Director for Health and Human Resources, 
Congressional Budget Office: 

Alan Weil: Executive Director, National Academy for State Health 
Policy: 

David Wennberg: President and Chief Operating Officer, Health Dialog 
Analytic Solutions: 

GAO Forum Managers: 

Jessica Farb: 

Hannah Fein: 

Mary Giffin: 

Bruce Steinwald: 

[End of section]

Footnotes: 

[1] See GAO, 21st Century Challenges: Reexamining the Base of the 
Federal Government, GAO-05-325SP (Washington, D.C.: Feb. 16, 2005).

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