From the U.S. Government Accountability Office, www.gao.gov

Transcript for: America's Money Matters - Understanding the Nation's
Long-Term Fiscal Health

Description: A look at the nation's financial condition and future, and
opportunities to improve it. (Updated from a 2017 video).

Released: March 2020

[First Screen] America's Money Matters Understanding the Nation's
Long-Term Fiscal Health

[Woman on screen]

[ Narrator: ] Hi, I'm Kerstin, an analyst at the US Government
Accountability Office. Politicians, talking heads, and analysts like me
are always talking about how large the debt is and how the debt will be
passed down to my generation, my kids' generation, and maybe even my
grandkids' generation. The debt is part of the bigger picture of the
federal government's current and future fiscal health. At GAO, we're
constantly assessing the government's fiscal condition and evaluating
ideas to improve it. Let's take a closer look at what's going on.

[Number on screen: $16,800,000,000,000]

Have you seen this number before? $16.8 trillion, it's the amount of
money that the federal government has borrowed from corporations, state
and local governments, foreign governments, and individuals like you as
of the end of fiscal year 2019. This is only a portion of the total
debt, which includes money that the government borrows from itself and
is around $23 trillion. As you can see, it's a number that just keeps
growing.

[Bar chart showing spending and revenue]

Each fiscal year if the government spends more money than it brings in
that year, that's a deficit. The nation borrows money to cover that
deficit, which increases the debt.

[Line chart with two lines rising starting in 2009, and the lower one
falling in 2019]

You'd think that with revenues growing and deficits shrinking in the
early 2000's, the nation would be in good shape. More recently, however,
deficits have been increasing and are projected to continue increasing
in the future. Some big trends in federal spending have a lot to do with
this.

[Images of different types of programs that money is spent on]

So how is the country spending its money? Congress sets federal spending
in a couple ways: Programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and
Medicaid are considered mandatory spending. For many of these programs
Congress sets payment and benefit formulas in a program law, not an in
annual spending law. If there are more people receiving Social Security,
for example, the program costs more than it did last year.

Programs such as defense, law enforcement, transportation, and national
parks are considered discretionary spending. Congress chooses how much
money to spend for these programs annually.

The other component is the net interest the government pays each year on
the trillions of dollars of debt it already has. As the debt continues
to grow, interest payments will become a larger and larger part of
federal spending. The costs associated with mandatory spending programs
will also continue to grow as our population ages and healthcare costs
rise.

[Images of security and other threats]

As mandatory spending and interest on the debt grow, they can place
pressure on spending in other important areas. We all expect to be
protected from military threats but also from cyber threats, which are
multiplying as we speak. Nobody can predict how much cybersecurity will
cost, as the threats are always evolving with technology. And, while
nobody wants to see a natural disaster, we all know that they happen and
that people will be seeking any federal assistance there is to help them
recover.

[Capitol dome, with dollar bills and clouds above it]

These kinds of things are considered fiscal risks to the government,
things that, when they happen, the government is expected to step in and
provide funding to help. There are many more fiscal risks than the ones
I just mentioned, and they're very hard to plan for.

[Line graph, showing an increasing line for debt]

All of these are reasons why the country spends money faster than it
comes in. Recently enacted cuts in taxes are projected to increase this
imbalance.

[Timeline]

According to the trend in our fiscal outlook, all of this is bad news
for the nation's future. In our simulated policy situation, the debt
will surpass its historical high in the next 11 years, putting the
squeeze on the federal budget. Without policy changes, critical pension insurance, Social Security and Medicare programs are projected to run short of funds to
fully pay benefits within the next 15 years- Multiemployer Pension insurance in 2025,Medicare hospital insurance in 2026, and Social Security old age and survivors insurance in 2034. These trust funds will only be sufficient to cover a portion of benefits after that. Growing pressure from these programs and interest on the debt are projected to lead to trillion-dollar beginning in 2020.

[Image of badge, showing parts of the solution]

Tackling trillions of dollars of debt and strengthening the nation's
financial condition will likely require making changes to mandatory
programs, discretionary spending, and revenue. If we wait to make these
changes, they will only get bigger and require harder decisions. To make
future changes less painful, there are a few things the government could
do right away.

[Images of people receiving money, and tax documents]

For example, sometimes it makes payments to people by mistake. And the
government doesn't collect all the taxes it's owed right now.

[Images of documents]

There's also not enough strong data and good financial information
available across the government. In many cases, to help policymakers
make important financial decisions, agencies need to take action to
provide additional or better information on how much policies and
programs cost. With some effort, the federal government can fix these
things.

[Image: $16,800,000,000,000]

It would be a start, but not nearly enough to fully tackle the $16.8 trillion debt to close the future gaps. It's important for policymakers to
address the nation's long-term fiscal health in order to solve many of
the other challenges facing the nation.

[Image: GAO logo and dollar bills]

Learn more at GAO.gov.