From the U.S. Government Accountability Office, www.gao.gov

Transcript for: Watchdog Report: Deep Dig - The 2020 Census

Description: We're debuting a new edition of our podcasts called
Watchdog Report: Deep Dig. We'll dig deeper into some of our bigger
topics and issues. And you'll hear stories from the people behind GAO's
work. The focus of this first episode is the 2020 Census.

Released: November 2019

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[ Matt Oldham: ] This is a different podcast, at least, from the ones
that we do normally, the Watchdog Report podcast, where we take a look
at a focused topic based on GAO reports. We take about five to eight
minutes talking with the directors behind them. But, for this podcast,
we are focusing more on larger issues and we're also going to look at
the people behind the work at GAO, their effort and their experiences.
You know, things we could dig deeper on. And for our first Deep Dig,
we're going to focus on the census. And so, the first question, I think,
is the most important one. Is the census going to be ready to go next
year? 

[ Robert Goldenkoff: ] That's the $15.6 billion open question of the
moment. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] That's Robert Goldenkoff. He's GAO's lead expert on the
census. 

[ Robert Goldenkoff: ] The 2020 Census is on GAO's list of high risk
programs and operations because of concerns that we have over the
readiness of key innovations that the Census Bureau has planned for
2020, as well as the functionality of key IT and cybersecurity systems.
To give it a sense of the scale of the census and why this is so complex
and some of the factors that put it at risk, the nation consists of
around 330 million people, and that literally changes every single
second. So, during the time of this broadcast, there are going to be
another 50 to 80 people that the Census Bureau has to count. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] The High-Risk List that Robert referred to is a list
that GAO puts out every two years, and includes government programs and
operations that are susceptible to fraud, waste, abuse, and
mismanagement, or that need transformation. It covers things like
national defense, cybersecurity, natural disasters, but I'm hard-pressed
to think about another organization who is on our High-Risk List that
sends their employees out across America. And here's where it gets a
little more interesting. With those census workers pounding the
pavement, knocking on doors, are GAO analysts like Lisa Pearson. 

[ Lisa Pearson: ] That's right. They're out in the field right now
updating and verifying the address list for the decennial census. So, it
really depends on what part of the country you're out there. Definitely,
New York City is very different from the mountains of West Virginia. In
the cities, you have kind of a changing landscape right now. You have a
lot of cities where there's going through some urban revitalization,
like in Detroit, Michigan. We were out there; we saw that there were
whole blocks that were being taken down and that they were building up
and revitalizing those city blocks. So, you have a change in the address
file, and you're going to have to be able to properly account for those
new housing units and the new change in the landscape. Also, kind of
when you go out to West Virginia, you have streets, and the streets are
rural streets, and they have no names, and so kind of be able to
identify the housing units in those areas is also a concern, and so
typically what ends up happening is, the addresses, they'll have a
location and they'll have to have a GPS, and the GPS, of course, in the
mountains, as well, is challenging. And so, you don't always get that
GPS map spot. 

[ Robert Goldenkoff: ] The Census Bureau also has to account for migrant
farmworkers, people living in converted basements and attics, and, of
course, some people with no homes at all. So, getting back to your
question, here, in terms of the census, will it be ready to go next
year, there are certain things that we find encouraging, and certain
things that continue to keep us up at night. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] So then, what is it that would give GAO analysts reason
to pause? 

[ Lisa Pearson: ] One of the biggest challenges the Bureau is going to
have is keeping it at, Robert said, the $15.6 billion census. Back in
2010, the cost of the decennial census was about $12.3 billion, and so
we see the cost increasing more and more. And part of that cost increase
is due to the response rate, and so what we saw back in 1970, that the
response rate of people was about 78%, and so now, they're expecting
about a 60% response rate. And so, when you don't have people responding
to the decennial census, that means you have to send more workers out in
the field, and it becomes more and more expensive. And so, when the
Bureau has to go out and, like Robert said, count these people, it's a
big deal. And, you know, even though the law is clear that no personal
information is going to be shared, nonetheless, people are reluctant to
share their responses, and so the Bureau has partnership programs that
they put out there to get the response up, but nonetheless, at the end
of the day, it's really the cooperation of the people that needs to
happen in order for the decennial census to be a success. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] So, Lisa's saying that it would be cheaper for the
federal government if people filled out their information online, and
there's good news on that front, because for the first time, everyone
can fill out their information online using a computer or a phone or
tablet. So, imagine how important cybersecurity becomes, and here is
GAO's cybersecurity expert, Nick Marinos, to talk about how Census plans
to tackle this. 

[ Nick Marinos: ] You know, we're talking about a really big opportunity
for the Bureau in making a pretty significant innovative shift in the
way that it's been doing business since the dawn of our democracy in the
way that it's going to try to collect this information. And obviously,
with an increasing amount of people having access to the internet,
there's a huge opportunity here to collect information from citizens
using that capability. But at the same time, it can often be difficult
to determinate whether the organization or the individual that you're
trying to communicate with is who they say they are. And so, the Bureau
is taking a lot of steps to try to ensure that it's getting good
information out there, providing accurate information to those that
reside within the United States so that when the time comes for them to
be able to jump online to potentially fill out the census that way,
they'll know that they can do that securely. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] So, our information is going to stay secure? 

[ Nick Marinos: ] We're certainly hoping so. This is one of the key
parts of why the census, the 2020 Census is on GAO's High-Risk List.
We've also had cybersecurity on that High-Risk List for over 20 years,
since 1997, so we've seen cybersecurity as a national risk for quite
some time. With respect to the data, we see the Bureau taking steps to
not only do its own testing to ensure that the systems that they're
going to rely on are going to be secure, but also seeking assistance
from other groups, including the Department of Homeland Security, which
increasingly has had greater responsibility for exactly this type of
thing, to help other federal agencies in ensuring that their systems are
well protected. Where we think that more attention is required is that
the Bureau really needs to take that feedback that it's receiving from
its own testing and from the department, and make sure that it can turn
around and take corrective actions. Those tests are really only going to
be as valuable as the corrections that are made, and we've recently made
recommendations to the Bureau to really try to establish a better
process for doing so, so that, come census day, they'll place themselves
in the best position. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] So, Nick's talking about testing from the big-picture
view, but there's also testing that needs to happen at the micro view.
And that's for IT systems, those things that make sure the whole
operation works and runs smoothly. So, Jon Ticehurst, you also work on
cybersecurity and IT issues. What does this look like? 

[ Jon Ticehurst: ] Yeah, yeah. They're going to be using 52 systems to
conduct the 2020 Census, and these systems are going to be highly
interconnected. The address-canvassing operation, for example, that's
ongoing right now relies on 23 different systems. These are for things
like hiring, payroll, mapping addresses, management reporting, and many
other areas. These systems all need to work together for the operation
to be successful. So, overall, we're talking about a very complex IT
environment. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] So, you've heard about the challenges the census needs
to overcome, but if there was one thing they could do or change to
better prepare for a successful count in 2020, what would it be? We're
going to find out after this short break.

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[ Robert Goldenkoff: ] I think one thing that the Census Bureau can do,
I'm not sure if the Census Bureau needs to change anything. They are
already pulling out all the stops and they're really going to great
lengths to conduct a successful headcount. It's really going forward a
matter of staying on schedule, because if the Census Bureau were to fall
behind, that delay, subsequent operations and all the operations need to
start and stop on time, because subsequent operations, then, are
dependent upon them, and once you fall behind, it's hard to make up that
lost ground. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] As Robert was talking about what's at stake if the
count isn't a success, I couldn't help but wonder, how does the census
get to the finish line? 

[ Robert Goldenkoff: ] They need to reach the expected response rate,
which is the low 60%, and part of that will involve reaching out to
hard-to-count populations, those who are linguistically isolated, those
who historically don't respond to the census out of concerns about
privacy or other factors. 

[ Nick Marinos: ] And that, I think, gets to participation, so really
the encouragement to have people participate. Obviously, the earlier
that people respond online, the less need there will be for people to go
and knock on folks' doors. So, if you don't like people bugging you at
your doors, then hop online and fill it out early. I was talking to an
acquaintance of mine who happened to have someone come by as part of the
address canvassing, and his wife had answered the door and answered the
questions. And as she was closing the door, she happened to hear that
the gentleman had mumbled something under his breath, and so this friend
of mine was able to play back his Ring doorbell video and listened to
what the guy said, and it turns out that the guy said, "Wow, somebody
finally actually opened the door for me." 

[ Lisa Pearson: ] When we were out in the field, we found that the
police were called and census workers were escorted out of communities
just because, as Nick was saying, people weren't sure and they didn't
want to open their doors, and so they were suspect of these people
walking around their communities with laptop computers, you know,
standing in front of their homes. 

[ Nick Marinos: ] This is the environment that we live in today. People
are reluctant to open their doors, and they may equally be reluctant to
hop online without assurances, and so the Bureau is taking some pretty
significant steps to try to establish the partnerships so that folks can
actually, you know, be comfortable in filling out the survey when it
comes to them, as well as the resources so that, for example, if people
need assistance from a language perspective, that those resources are
available to them. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] Nick said it. This is the environment we're living in.
The Census knows that, and they have a plan in place to put people at
ease.

[ Robert Goldenkoff: ] They sent out videos, they sent out photographs
of what the ID badges are supposed to look like, they sent out
photographs of the satchels that the census workers are supposed to,
that should be carrying with them, so they seem to be, at every step of
the way, seem to be taking sufficient, and it's really hard to think of
anything that they're missing, anything significant. 

[ Lisa Pearson: ] I think one of the emerging challenges that the Bureau
is facing right now is low unemployment, and so we found for address
canvassing, that they wanted to hire about 40,000 folks across the
country to conduct this address canvassing, and they were only able to
hire about 28,000. Nonetheless, they were able to get it done, because
they were able to move folks from one state to another state, or across
the state in order to get the work done. However, you know, coming up in
May of this year, they're going to start nonresponse follow-up and
they're going to need about 350,000 folks to carry out that and so I
think one of the big concerns right now for the Census Bureau is
managing that low unemployment. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] We say these numbers like it's nothing, right? I mean,
these are large numbers.

[ Robert Goldenkoff: ] Keep in mind, that's the population of certain
states. It's like taking the state of New Mexico and hiring everybody.

[ Nick Marinos: ] It's the largest civilian mobilization, peacetime
mobilization of individuals. 

[ Matt Oldham: ] $15.6 billion, more than 300 million people to count,
350,000 workers to hire, 52 different IT systems. It happens once every
10 years. Yeah, I guess you could say that's a lot to dig into.

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The Deep Dig is a production of the GAO Watchdog Report. A big thank you
to Robert, Nick, Lisa, and Jon, and the Public Affairs staff. To hear
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